Raila Amollo Odinga is the political glue that has held South and Central Nyanza together for decades.
That does not mean the vagaries of time – and politics – have not tested just how strong his political glue can hold.
This relationship was tested this week when two leading minds and think tanks of no mean repute – James Orengo and Rarieda MP Otiende Amollo – had their political foundations shaken to the core.
Those said to be leading the onslaught are men and women from South Nyanza – the likes of Alliance High alumni and Suna East MP Junet Mohamed who hails from Migori County. Suba South MP John Mbadi who hails from Homa Bay County. Other politicians like Gladys Wanga also from Homa Bay are said to be the conductors of the new Orange Democratic (ODM) choir.
Mbadi is the current ODM chairman and the Leader of the Minority in the National Assembly. Mbadi is said to have moved the motion of removal of Otiende from the Justice and Legal Affairs Committee of the National Assembly.
Mbadi argued that the JLAC vice-chairperson had failed to advance the party’s position on BBI at the committee.
“If he is not pushing the party agenda in JLAC, why should we continue having him? There is nothing mischievous in the changes. We are not punishing anyone,” stated Mbadi.
Otiende who has since been replaced by Ruaraka MP Tom Kaajwang’ [ Also from Homa Bay in Central Nyanza] denied claims that he had resigned in a huff by sending party leader Raila Odinga an insulting SMS.
“If I was to resign, I would know how to resign…I will not lend myself to this spin-doctoring. It is true that as early as Sunday, I had known of the games and that why I tweeted about it,” Otiende said. He has stated that someone was keen on pushing them out of the party.
Meanwhile, Junet is the National Assembly Minority Whip – and has been the BBI Secretariat.
Firebrand politician Millie Odhiambo [Suba North] hails from South Nyanza [Homa Bay] and will still be positioning herself to make contributions on the table of politics come 2022.
But when Mwanahabari.co.ke asked her if the jostling currently facing ODM party was simply the age-old battle of South Nyanza vs Central Nyanza, she denied – vehemently simply replying to our text message with a “NO”.
“The next few years are going to be key in Nyanza politics. Jaramogi Oginga Odinga welded Luos into a fervent and united support base – and when he died in 1994 – his son, Raila Odinga, took over Luo leadership and has done a splendid job galvanizing the community,” a source who did not wish to be named told Mwanahabari.co.ke.
Meanwhile – in the larger central Nyanza including Kisumu county which is Raila Odinga’s home ground – things are falling apart.
Raila already is without Jakoyo Midiwo who lost his seat in the 2017 general election – although there are talks that he could make a comeback in 2022.
Age Factor
Another of Raila Odinga’s strategists and think-tank is Kisumu governor and ally, Prof Anyang’ Nyong’o, but who is busy trying to sort Kisumu.
After his battle with prostate cancer, the Kisumu Governor has not been keen on national politics and is more active in Kisumu and the Council of Governors’ affairs.
Raila’s elder brother Oburu Odinga is technically out due to age factor.
Ugenya MP David Ochieng’ defeated ODM candidate in a by-election and is rumoured to be leaning towards Deputy President William Ruto’s political wing.
The remaining lieutenants – Orengo and Otiende – are no longer in the right books with the ODM entourage. This only leaves the South Nyanza brigade at the helm.
It must not be forgotten that South Nyanza had powerful politicians during and post-Kanu era – with the likes of the late Oyugi Ezekiah, Okiki Amayo, Peter Nyakiamo, Oluoch Kanindo, Prof Ouma Muga, Migori gubernatorial aspirant Dalmas Otieno, Phoebe Asiyo calling the shots long before Raila became a force.
Oyugi held Permanent Secretary in the then powerful internal security docket in 1990 – it’s the equivalent of PS Karanja Kibicho today.
On his part – Dalmas Otieno served as Minister for Industrialisation from 1988 to 1991 and was Minister of Labour & Human Resource Development and as Minister of Transport from 1991 to 1996. There are talks he is looking to inherit the governor’s seat from Obado in 2022.